Surfantasy Predictions – Sunset 10,000 and Shannon Eckstein Classic 10,000
By Surfantasy and Ben Cochrane
The season-ending Shaw and Partners Shannon Eckstein double header is this weekend and we are pretty excited about determining the winners of the cars and MVPs.
Surfantasy requires players to select a team for BOTH the Friday Sunset 10,000 and the Saturday Shaw and Partners Shannon Eckstein Classic 10,000. You must select your teams for BOTH events before midnight Thursday the 22nd.
Forecast: The forecast is a little tricky to read, as there is a big low south of Tassie and it’s coming slowly up the east coast of Australia – but it has a lot of west in it meaning not as much swell will head north toward the Gold Coast. The forecast apps are bouncing around so I reached out to local Northcliffe athlete Hannah Scully for her view.
Hannah said the recent swell forecasts had been reading a metre (3ft) but that it’s been smaller than forecast. However, the bank is pretty shallow, and different tides have been playing with the swell and causing plenty of water movement. With the anticipated 20+ knot winds, rain and 1m/3ft swell it might be an unpleasant few days but fun racing. In summary, conditions will suit skilled athletes so think about this in your Surfantasy team selections.
The forecast continues to change so keep an eye on the Shannon forecast at our Surfantasy event page.
IRON
Women
Lana Rogers has a solid lead in the Shaw and Partners World Ocean Series (WOS) title and will be hard to beat on her home beach. After being eliminated and missing the final weekend of the Shaw and Partners Iron Series we suspect she is hungry for a big result this weekend.
But Tiarnee ‘T’ Massie is on a hot streak not seen since her friend Naomi Scott’s 2024/2025 streak. With consecutive Iron wins at Maroochy, Round 6 and Round 7 Grand Eliminator final of the Iron Series she is a serious threat. Emma Woods has been underrated and amazing this year and Annalise Kibble won Manly in solid surf. All these legends are serious contenders for this weekend’s racing and all sit in Tier A. Good luck choosing one from that list but we’re going with T on form.
Carla has the majority of Surfantasy selections in Tier B with 57% of players selecting her in their team and if the swell gets solid I want to see her charge out and in! Tier C is dominated by Lucy Derbyshire (52% of selections) and Lily O with 25%. Scully is a good roughie in decent surf and with only 2.6% of the vote is a sleeper in Tier C.
Winner: Tiarnee Massie
Dangerous: Lana Rogers, Naomi Scott, Carla Papac, Lucy Derbyshire,
Men
We said in the last preview article that Ethan Callaghan is “so” hot right now and he remains so with a 9th and 3rd in final two rounds of the iron series. If he isn’t the heir to Ali for race results, he is in likeability with an abundance of humility and respect – hard to fault this young man.
Race wise he is a model of consistency and the number 1 ranked Surfantasy Iron athlete over the last 12 months ahead of Noah Steiner. Over two races we think he will win at least one of them. We would pick him in one of your teams and with 50% of the Tier A selections he is the popular choice over Ali Day who has 22%.
This low selection % for Ali from Surfantasy players is a big surprise as Ali placed 2nd and then won the final Grand Eliminator and the overall Iron Series title (who can forget). He deserves more support from wise Surfantasy players.
Connor Maggs leads the WOS Iron title with two races remaining. He also has a low 2,975 points from a 15th at Port to replace so any solid result this weekend will only increase his points score. He is a big chance to win the Iron in the World Ocean Series and the new car to go with the car he won in last years Iron Series. Has anyone else won two cars in the Shaw and Partners era (let us know)? Over sixty percent of Surfantasy players have selected him over Zac Morris in Tier B.
Joe Collins, Jackson Borg, Finn Askew and Charlie Verco are the major choices for Tier C. Finn won Saturday Iron Series Round 6 race and led into the last leg of Saturday’s Grand Eliminator before getting smashed and crashing out. Word from other athletes is he was ‘very fast’ that weekend and he is my Tier C choice for my Surfantasy team.
Winner: Ethan Callaghan
Dangerous: Ali Day, Connor Maggs, Finn Askew, Borgy, Joe
BOARD
Women
Tiarnee Massie is the first person to ever lead two Surfantasy rankings as she is currently on top of both the iron and board (amazing). She leads the board with an average position over the past twelve months of 3.2. Her worst result is 6th and after a win at Maroochy she is a logical choice for this weekend. The Surfantasy players agree with 55% selecting her in their team for Tier A over Hannah Scully with 22%. 
You have to select separate Surfantasy teams for Friday and Saturday events. I would select Tiarnee in Tier A for Friday Sunset 10,000 but if it gets big on Saturday I am backing Hannah Scully who thrives in the waves, is racing on her home beach in her favourite event. She is leading the WOS board with only 4 races (best 5 results count) so any strong results this weekend and she will be heading to a 5th WOS board title. That would be something to watch in this strong field (Note Lizzie has only 3 results in her count and Tiarnee 4 so this will come down to the wire).
Hannah has also won the board at the Shannon Eckstein Classic four times in a row (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024). Although she didn’t win the Shannon last year in 2025, she did win the Friday race. What a record!
Tier C is all about Lizzie Welborn with 70% of the players including her in their Surfantasy team. Good choice and we agree but think about Kaitlin Rees if you are currently sitting well behind in the league leaderboard and you need to back a few non-favourites to move up.
Tier C selection is Brodee Trinca for us. If you haven’t yet, jump onto her Instagram and see her great carnival videos – good example of athlete creating fun content.
Winner: Tiarnee Massie and Hannah Scully
Dangerous: Lizzie Welborn, Kaitlin Rees and Brodee Trinca
Men
This season no one has earned more frequent flyer miles than Cruz Missile McKee. He already has 7 races in his WOS MVP score and is currently sitting second. This season Surfantasy players have backed Cruz strongly in Tier A but now the money has moved to evens with Bevy – about 43% of players are selecting Cruz and 41% Bevy (10% Zac Morris).
This shows how intelligent the Surfantasy players are as Bevy is back to his best after an indifferent 2024/25 season by his high standards. He also has a poor result to throw away in his MVP score (20th at Glenelg) so a red-hot chance to win the board MVP. With some wind about both days watch the 5x Molokai champ belt home from the cans on any bump he can muster. He is my choice in Tier A.
We are picking Brayden Cassamento for our Tier B and for Tier C, the overwhelming Surfantasy favourite is Charlie Verco with 85% selecting him in their team. Charlie is currently leading the WOS board MVP but this will be a three-way dogfight between him, Bevy and Cruz to see who wins the title. Make sure you tune into Surfantasy and don’t miss a minute of the live broadcast from 2pm AEST each day.
Winner: Bevy
Dangerous: Cruz, Verco, Brayden
SKI
Women
Claudia Kelly with 64% of selections is currently dominating Tier A and with no Jemma Smith entered is also my choice. She is on a high after auto qualifying for the 2027 Shaw and Partners Iron Series and leading the WOS ski title so will be full pumped to win on her Aussie home beach.
Emily Doyle is also riding high after a podium at the Iron Series and is in the hunt for the WOS ski title against Claudia and Elissa Johnson. We would select either Emily or Annalise ‘AK-47’ Kibble in Tier B. Our recommendation is to select Emily on Friday and Annalise for Saturday because if the swell increase’s we like AK-47 in the bigger surf.
There are no kayakers racing meaning we are missing Jemma, Ella, Olivia, Jasmine x2, Brianna, Jenaya and Hannah (sorry if we missed you). For Tier C I’m keeping it spicy with Carla ‘Charger’ Papac in the big surf.
Winner Claudia “The Dozer” Kelly
Dangers: Em Doyle, Annalise “Ak-47”, Carla Papac
Men
The Men’s ski is also wide open with the kayak team racing on the flat this weekend. Tier A selection is between Jayke Rees, Josh Murphy and Joe Collins. I like the straight ski paddlers and suspect with $25,000 up for first in the iron that Joe may not do single ski. Either Jayke or Josh are good choices in Tier A.
Jamo Porter (62%) is our choice for Tier B over the best moustache on the beach, Jayden Erskine (13%). But also note Max Brooks (15%) is also back racing and only starts to fire post-Christmas – he could be one to watch.
Tier C once again I’m torn between young gun Joel Steiner and Big Bad Benny (BBB) Carberry. 53% have selected Ben and I agree that he gets over Joel this year, but not next year.
Winner: Jayke Rees
Dangerous: Josh Murphy, Jamo Porter, Jayden Erskine, BBB Carberry
SWIM
Women
Naomi Scott is a legend surf swimmer, is entered, and the Surfantasy players choice in Tier A with 67% selecting her in their team. But we’ve been through her history of results on Surfantasy and she has not raced a 10,000 swim this year.
The second Surfantasy players choice is Lana Rogers (18%) who is leading the WOS swim MVP and is entered - but she also has not done a final swim in a 10,000 this season (Manly final she made was cancelled). We think Lana will race the swim on Friday to try to close out the Swim MVP but not on Saturday. Select them at your own discretion especially on Saturday when $25,000 is up for grabs in the iron.
Your safe Tier A pick is Sarah Locke and she gets our selection especially for Saturday. Our Tier B selection is Lily O who will thrive in these conditions. We are picking low-profile kiwi swimmer Molly Shivnan in Tier C. My spies tell me she is very fast and has been impressive in the pool.
Winner: Lily O (Lana for Sat only)
Dangerous: Sarah Locke, Molly Shivnan, Bella Williams
Men Swim
Firstly, let us apologise to the athletes in the men’s swim as our predictions for Maroochy Classic were accidentally edited out.
Hayden Cotter is hungry for another Shaw and Partners World Ocean Series swim MVP and currently leads after sneaking down to South Australia to win the Brighton Jetty Classic. Hayden is a good pick and is currently selected in 57% of Surfantasy players teams. NSW pair Dan Collins and Jackson McCleery are also good options and on a low tide with a run finish Dan “The Man” Collins would be a better selection between those two.
Henry Simpson is our choice in Tier B. Ignore his 13th at Murphy Homes Maroochy Classic as I watched him and he swam better than that result indicates.
In Tier C, the red-hot swimmer is Cooper Williams after winning both the Hayden Kenny Classic and Maroochy Classic. He is a lock for Tier C especially if there is some surf around on Saturday.
Winner: Cooper Williams
Dangerous: Hayden Cotter, Henry Simpson, Dan Collins, Jackson McCleery
Have fun playing Surfantasy this weekend and get your team selections for BOTH events lodged before Thursday midnight. Also ensure you wait until your selected team is saved and you can see your team of selected athletes like in images below as this shows your team is locked in.
