Surfantasy Predictions – Shaw and Partners Word Ocean Series Murphy Homes Maroochy Classic
The next round is immediately upon us with Murphy Homes Maroochy Classic being held this Friday and Saturday. You must select your team before midnight Thursday 22nd.
After some hectic surf and wind conditions for recent events this weekend is forecast for small swell and light winds. Breathe everyone as we are definitely having a full program!
IRON
Women
I want to talk about Emma Woods as she does not get enough air time nor Surfantasy selections. Emma is currently the Number 1 ranked iron athlete and I did a deep dive on her results to understand more. In the past 12 months her worst position is 12th and then its 8th, 5th, 5th, 3rd, 3rd and 3rd. Crazy, crazy, crazy consistency and I hope more back her going forward. I am for Maroochy being in her backyard.
Some unfairly question Lana Rogers in big surf but a second in Manly must put that chatter to bed and in fast Maroochy conditions she is also a good option in Tier A. Naomi Scott is also the other big chance here and with her power swim leg she will get lots of support in Tier A.
The smart money is with Carla Papac in Tier B (65% of the vote). We picked Analise Kibble for Manly and she delivered a powerful performance however she is currently resting and not entered Maroochy (some people continue to pick her). Lucy Derbyshire is the other form iron woman who is extremely consistent and gets my Tier C pick over Kaitlin Rees and Electra Outram.
Winner: Emma Woods
Dangerous: Naomi Scott, Carla Papac, Lucy Derbyshire, Lana Rogers
Men
Ethan Callaghan is so hot right now. Todays ‘IT’ ironman has a massive Surfantasy following with 67% selecting him for Tier A. To put this in perspective Ali Day only has 17% of the selections so everyone on Ethan. We can also tell you as the surf stats people that more people search Ethan’s analytics than any surf athlete. These stats will tell you he is on the rise with five top 10 results this year (including 2nd at Manly) and rising in rank from 8th to 1st.
If you want to move up the leaderboard you may consider going against the popular team selections. In that case in Tier A look for Noah Steiner or Joel Piper who had a strong 3rd and 4th at Manly and both have less than 4% of selections.
Connor Maggs can do anything when he wants to. His iron swim on Saturday was HUGE and he finished with some eye popping ski to rodeo ride to body surf to ski drag to body surf to run and win. Its just knowing when he wants to switch on. So I checked the MVP standing and he is definitely in with a shot so I think he will be hungry for another great result here. He gets my Tier B selection.
The Surfantsy team like Joe Collins in Tier C with 45% of the selections but I like Callum CJ Brennan. CJ led his iron round two swim by an ocean but got smoked on the ski to not qualify to the next round. In the benign conditions expected he gets my Tier C selection.
BOARD
Women
The Number 1 ranked board paddler Tiarnee Massie has is being selected in 70% of teams and she gets my selection for Tier A being on her home beach. Listen to the local Maroochy crowd every time she races.
Tier B includes series MVP leader Georgia Singleton and she warrants some consideration however Electra Outram has a green tick showing she is returning to racing this weekend and has my vote in Tier B.
In Tier C 20% of people have selected Lizzie Welborn. Normally a great idea but no green tick says she isn’t entered. Wasted team selection for these people. Selection is split between Kaitlin Rees (36%) and Brodee Trinca (32%) and both warrant the popularity. Kaitlin Rees gets it for me (just)
Winner: Tiarnee Massie
Dangerours: Electra Outram, Kaitlin Rees and Brodee Trinca
Men
There were 260 athletes on the men’s board start line at Manly and the Surfantasy data shows that statistically this is the hardest race to win, Men or Women. Any of the top 10 can win this race.
Despite this large number of potential winners, the Surfantasy players are all aligned behind Cruz ‘Missile’ McKee (60%) in Tier A, Brayden ‘Razor’ Cassamento (82%) in Tier B and Charlie ‘BoxCutter’ Verco (80%) in Tier C. They are good choices but Bevy who won at Hayden Kenny Classic with 20% of selections is a terrific option.
Winner: Brayden (we are back to back to back to back on Razor so why stop now?)
Dangerous: Cruz, Verco, Bevy
SKI
Women
Claudia Kelly with 60% of selections is currently dominating Tier A and with no Jemma Smith nor Piper racing is also my choice. I’ve said it before I love watching the joy of The Dozer racing and I hope she does well here.
Emily Doyle is a greatly improved ski paddler over the past 2 years and with a win at Port and 4th at Shaw and Partners Hayden Kenny Classic is also my choice in Tier B.
Tier C is tricky and I’m surprised more people are not on Carla Papac and/or Lucy Derbyshire who both paddle well. Young gun Olivia Clues (currently ranked 18th) is my choice – watch her improve up the rankings over the next few years.
Winner Claudia The Dozer Kelly
Dangers: Em Doyle, Olivia Clues, Carla Papac
Footnote: 22% of players have selected Analise Kibble and 20% have selected Jemma Smith who with no green ticks are not racing. Insert eyeroll.
Men
With no men’s kayak team again and Harry Taurrins carrying a side strain the men’s open ski is wide open. This means spend extra time in the data Surfantasy peeps as there is opportunity for you to get some points and move up the league leaderboards.
Jamo Porter is a physiological mystery to me. How can a guy with his frame compete so strongly against the likes of Jacko, Harvard, Fitz etc. His technique still generates the power and speed to get the job done and I think he will win on Saturday on his home turf.
Jayden Erskine is the logical choice in Tier B and also my choice here. Tier C I’m torn between young gun Joel Steiner and big bad Benny Carberry. 52% have selected Ben and I agree that he gets over Joel this year but not after this year.
Winner: Jamo Porter
Dangerous: Jayden Erskine, BBB Carberry, Joel Steiner
SWIM
Women
Lily O is swimming very well and is my choice in Tier A (no Lani everyone so recommend not selecting her). In Tier B the Surfantasy players are all on Kaitlin Rees with 82% selecting her in their team. Tier C is as always, the money selection with many options and the women’s swim is no different. Zoe Woods, Gemma Smith-Welch and Molly Shivnan are splitting the selections and I also have trouble splitting them. After her recent iron results, I’m selecting GSW for my Tier C.
Winner: Lily O
Dangerous: Kaitlin Rees, Gemma Smith Welch, Molly Shivnan, Zoe Woods
Have fun playing Surfantasy this weekend and get your selections lodged before Thursday night. Also ensure you wait until your selected team is saved and you can see the screens like images below as this shows your team is locked in