Ok Surfantasy players, you’ve now had a couple of goes at picking your winning teams…how did you go? The top of the leaderboard is tight and if you want to remain there or improve your ranking you are going to have to take selections for this weekend’s Shaw and Partners Manly Surf Open very seriously.
Before selecting your team, we recommend research on conditions …surf is forecast to be large, with SE swell building through Friday and peaking on Saturday where afternoon finals are being held on a low tide. Add to this strong side winds of 22 knots and it should provide big tricky conditions.
Surfantasy provides you with all the tools to make informed picks for this weekend. If you dive into the athlete rank tab and click on an athlete you can see what conditions they race well in and their performance trends.
And our Surfantasy tip is look closely at your Tier 3 picks as it is where you have the biggest chance to really boost your point score.
IRON
Women
Lana Rogers is the current Shaw and Partners World Ocean Series MVP Iron leader, with 3 wins from 4 starts this season and her recent performance trend is improving.
She is no longer racing in the Iron Series so should be well rested and highly motivated. Although she has mixed results in big surf Lana is one of the best transition runners in the sport so will relish the low tide at finals time. Lana is a Surfantasy gem hiding in Tier 3 but chose carefully as other in form athletes are also in Tier C including Lily O’Sullivan, Lucy Derbyshire and Annalise Kibble. Lucy and Kib seem to be at the front of every race at the moment and are perhaps the two form female iron athletes.
Tier A athlete Naomi Scott is currently the favourite pick with 51% of the votes. She looked strong over the weekend racing in the Iron Series in big and tricky surf taking out a win on Saturday and a 4th on Sunday. Manly is also her home beach and where she currently trains whilst racing for BMD Northcliffe. Tiarnee (‘T’) though can never be discounted as she is one of the most consistent iron racers with excellent Surfantasy stats and is a fan favourite so will get plenty of selections.
Tier B athlete favourite Lizzie Welborn with 54% of the votes got 2nd at Manly last year (which was also raced in big surf) and Kaitlin Rees who is sitting 2nd on the World Ocean Series iron MVP leaderboard has 34% of the votes has also had some great results this season. I think the experience and strength of Welborn will be valuable this weekend and she gets my selection for Tier B.
Winner: Annalise Kibble (AK-47)
Dangerous: Lucy D, Lizzie W, T and Naomi Scott
Men
The Tier A athlete favourite is young gun Ethan Callaghan with 45% of the Surfantasy players selecting him in their Tier A. He is in form with his Surfantasy rank moving up 18 places from 20th to second over the past 12 months. Further he raced very well on the weekend at Maroubra easily taking out the Sunday race in tricky big surf. The other athletes in this Tier are all strong contenders and if the iron order is board first Bevy’s often wins.
Tier B favourite Ali Day has 72% of the Surfantasy votes and he is hard to go past as he is the GOAT! But Callum CJ Brennan is also in Tier B and a big chance as he has won two rounds of the Iron Series and is in form. I’ve got to be honest I didn’t know Callum Brennan was this good and he has impressed many this season with his Shaw and Partners Iron Series victories.
Tier C also has some quality iron athletes including the current World Ocean Series iron leader Jackson Borg. Despite the brilliant form of Borg, the favourite choice to date is Joe Collins with 50% of the votes (he was the Hayden Kenny winner). Hard to split between these two for my Tier C selection.
Winner: Callum
Dangerous: Ali Day, Ethan Callaghan, Borgy, Bevy
BOARD
Women
Tier A favourite pick is Tiarnee with 45% of the votes - she is hard to go past given her consistency with her incredible average race position of 3.33. Interestingly the other board paddlers in Tier A are almost as consistent as T. Hannah Scully always races well in big surf as does Annalise Kibble. You also have Noami who is the reigning Aussie board champ. So this Tier is very hard to pick but I’ll take Tiarnee just over Scuzz.
Tier B top pick is Lizzie with 80% of Surfantasy players selecting her – and why wouldn’t you as she recently won at the Hayden Kenny Classic and also at this Manly round last year. She is a lock for Tier B.
Tier C is tough and a good selection here could super charge your point score…you need to pick wisely. Current in form athletes I would look at are Emma Woods, Carla Papac, Lucy Derbyshire and Lily O’Sullivan. Lily O prob gets it for Tier C
Winner: T
Dangerous: Lizzie W, Scuzz, Kib, Lily O
MEN
Tier A and crowd favourite Cruz McKee has 55% of the Surfantasy votes and a strong average position of 5.78. He is also the current MVP leader of the World Ocean Series board and a recommended selection in Tier A.
Charlie Verco is smashing the votes in Tier B with 86% - he has been at the front end of the board races this year and he is a good pick for Tier B. Sean Riley and Jett Green are both quality board paddlers and worth consideration if you want to select against the popular choice.
Like the girls, Tier C picks could be critical in determining where you end up on the leader board. Lots of good board paddlers to pick from and the current selections are spread indicating no clear Tier C favourite. Borgy, Auden Parish, Texas Dixon, Connor Maggs and Noah Steiner could all do some damage in a board race.
Winner: Cruz
Dangerous: Charlie, Brayden, Bevy, Tex
SWIM
Women
Lani Pallister is the safest pick in Surfantasy with an average position of 1.0 as she wins every time. However, Lani is not currently entered (no green tick next to her name)! 34% of the votes are with her…which is interesting.
In Tier A Naomi Scott (average 7.0) is entered (green tick) and is the favourite pick with 48% of the votes. Bella Williams is equally consistent with an average position of 6.86 and both Sarah Locke and Lily O’Sullivan are great swimmers you also could logically select.
Tier B favourite Kaitlin Rees has 78% of the votes and is currently leading the swim MVP - she has form and is a great bodysurfer. Georgia Singleton should also be considered for your team as a roughie as she is racing back on her home beach.
Tier C has some amazing swimmers and warrants some time in the Surfantasy stats before you select. Five foot plus is the best surf conditions for Claudia Rose Slaven, Em Doyle and current Tier C vote favourite AK-47 Annalise Kibble. The winner could easily come from one of these athletes in Tier C.
Winner: Naomi
Dangerous: Bella, Sarah, Charlotte and Claudia
Men
Tier A favourite and current leader of the World Ocean Series swim MVP Hayden Cotter has 65% of the votes. He has the local knowledge as Manly is his home club and he consistently races well in World Ocean Series events being multiple MVP. But there are also some other strong picks in this Tier with Jackson McCleery, Dan Collins and Joel Piper worthy of consideration.
Tier B has only 3 athletes entered so far, with Jackson Borg the current favourite. He is chasing the overall (all disciplines) MVP and be my pick for points from this Tier.
Tier C is filled with great swimmers, but a few of my recommended picks would be Henry Simpson, Conner Maggs or Cooper Williams. I like Cooper Williams for Tier C after a win at the Hayden Kenny Classic.
Winner: Hayden Cotter
Dangerous: Jackson, Henry and Cooper
SKI
Women
Tier A favourite Jemma Smith with 72% of the votes is hands down one the best female ski paddlers surf sports has produced. Jemma has only raced once this year at Wanda where she won. Claudia ‘The Dozer’ Kelly is current MVP leader and Piper ‘The Viper’ Harrison was the winner of the Hayden Kenny round. I’m backing Jemma here for her experience in the big conditions.
Tier B only has 3 athletes to pick from all great ski paddlers, with Em Doyle as the current favourite. This is fair as she is one of the most improved ski paddlers and expect her blue ski to be at the pointy end of the race.
Tier C favourite is currently Olivia Clues with 56% of the votes and she is hard to go past with her kayak background. Olivia is also fearless and will charge these conditions. Also look hard as in position 30 is Aussie champ Jasmine Locke who should be selected by many Surfantasy players.
Winner: Jemma
Dangerous: Claudia, Emily Doyle and Olivia Clues
MEN
The men’s ski field is wide open for this weekend as it looks from the Liveheat entries that all the Olympic kayakers are not racing Manly. We have no Riley, Jackson, Tom, Jean or Noah to name a few.
I like Josh Murphy for Tier A and Jamo Porter in Tier B although local boys Jayke Rees and Max Brooks are winding up their seasons and will come into Manly with improved fitness.
Harrison Taurins is the current leader of the ski MVP and the Hayden Kenny winner sits in Tier C. He is the most improved paddler in the series who is gaining in confidence each race and is a lock for Tier C selection. A few wise Surfantasy players might also see big bad Benny Carberry and Mitchell Trim have entered and their experience and strength will be valued in the big conditions forecast.
Winner: Harrison
Dangerous: Jamo Porter, Jayke Rees and Ben Carberry