We have teamed up with Surfantasy to bring you predictions based on the Surfantasy data.
Its about to get real!
All the pre-season dancing is done and now its game time as the first 10,000 event kicks off on Friday and Saturday at Alex Headland. The Shaw and Partners Hayden Kenny Classic is iconic as the seasons big opener and it either gets you flying for the season…or it doesn’t.
The forecast is for small Easterly swell and light NE winds so going to be all grunt from the athletes.
SWIM
Women
We had to start with the women’s swim with Lani Pallister confirmed as a starter. Lani has a Surfantasy All Races average position of 1.1* with 12 races for 11 wins and a second. She is on fire recently breaking the short course 800m world record and is arguably the best female surf race swimmer ever (listen to her interview here). An absolute lock in your Surfantasy team and it’s not meant to be disrespectful to the field, but everyone is racing for second in these conditions. And second to Lani is respect!
Winner – Lani Pallister
Dangerous – Lily O, Naomi Scott, Sarah Locke,
Mens
Whispers are that multiple swim MVP Hayden Cotter may or may not be racing. Hayden is a fan favourite with 50% of players picking him in their Surfantasy team - there may need to be some late team editing before Thursday midnight close.
If Hayden is a starter, you pick him. If he is a non starter we like Jackson McCleery now at Wanda. This chap can really swim fast - but per the Wanda socials this week he allegedly can’t run out of sight on a dark night. Mid-tide he should be ok but watch out for Surfantasy ranked 1 swimmer Joel Piper who is coming off a breakout 2024/25 season and Connor Maggs now at Mermaid under Ky Hurst.
We bumped into Ky in the airport recently and asked for an update on Connor and his move North across the border. Ky quietly excited and his ‘welcome to QLD’ training gift is loading up Connor in the pool. Maybe some breakout swim results coming – watch this space.
Winner - Jackson McCleery (if no Hayden Cotter)
Dangerous – Joel Piper, Connor Maggs, Ethan C
IRON
Women
This is probably the race of the day.
Last year Naomi Scott was a powerhouse with three consecutive wins (Manly, Maroochy, Friday’s Shannon) and four other podiums with an Average Position of 4.8. You would think Naomi is an obvious favourite but more than half of the Surfantasy players have selected her buddy Tiarnee Massie, who is racing in her local ‘hood.
To be honest this field is wide open with Emma Woods on home soil, Lizzie Welborn back healthy and Electra Outram smashing Coolie. Then there are the young guns who are on fire – Lily O, Kaitlin Rees (current series leader), Dom Stitt and Jasmine Raywood. And watch for Lana Rogers who seems very hungry for another iron MVP racing in Wanda, Coffs and Port this year and currently second in MVP standings.
Winner – Naomi Scott
Dangerous – Lana Rogers, Lizzie W, Kaity Rees, Electra Outram, Lily O, Dom Stitt, Jas Raywood,
Men
We have all seen what Ali Day does to the field in flat light conditions and is a lock selection. The Surfantasy players agree with 54% selecting him in their team. Why wouldn’t you with Ali having the fastest swim leg, near the fastest ski leg and the most underrated board in the field. Ali has won an Aussie board title and was fastest board split in the Coolie gold. Could he become the first male to win the Shaw and Partners Iron and World Ocean Series in the same year?
Ali wont have it all his way. Noah Steiner is the currently the best ranked ironman in the field after only four (consistent) races post injury last season. Many are predicting big things from Noah this year including a major World Ocean Series iron win. And next gen are ominous with previous race winner Ethan Callaghan and Connor Maggs a huge threat. Generation now will also have something to say. Joe Collins didn’t have his best WOS season last year and will respond, Finn Askew is in hot form and Zac Morris knows how to win.
Winner – Ali Day
Dangerous – Ethan Callaghan, Connor Maggs, Finn Askew,
BOARD
Women
Last seasons Women’s Board was a head-to-head battle of Foreman/Ali proportions and undoubtedly the biggest battle in the World Ocean Series.
Tiarnee Massie seasons board results were 1st (last year’s Shaw and Partners Hayden Kenny Classic), 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 1st and 2nd. That is seven podiums from eight races!
Meanwhile Lizzie Welborn accrued five consecutive podiums including two wins to take the MVP down to the last race of the season. Tiarnee won the last race and the season chocolates (from Lizzie and a fast finished Hannah Scully) and is the favourite.
But the head to head battle resumes on Saturday and watch for spoilers from Hannah Scully, Electra Outram and Brodie Trinca.
Winner – Tiarnee Massie
Dangerous – Lizzie Welborn, Hannah Scully, Electra Outram, Brodie Trinca
Mens
Surfantasy statistics show the Mens board race is the hardest race to win. There are so many good male board paddlers right now making the final is hard enough, and if you make it that far any could win this race. In the light conditions its going to be very tactical and being close to the front with plenty in the tank on the last can is essential for any chance.
Zach Morris is the Surfantasy Rank 1 board paddler and deservedly. You rarely see him leading around the cans but is fast, crafty and skilful. Also by far and away the most consistent board paddler with a worst result of 9th in last 12 months.
Cruz McKee will love these conditions and made 11 finals from 11 starts in last twelve months. Probably the only person to ever beat Corey Fletcher in a finish with smart bunny hop over the bank.
Charlie Verco is the season average ‘club house leader’ with a 1st and 2nd this season, won this race last year and is fit coming off his third consecutive Molokai World Title. Brayden Casamento on his home beach will be pumped for a big performance and Matt Bevilaqua is always fast and very, very hard to beat. Auden Parish is back padding quickly and a podiumed at 2025 Aussies.
Winner – Brayden Casamento
Dangerous – Charlie Verco, Cruz McKee, Zach Morris, Matt Bevilaqua
SKI
Women
After Lani Pallister (85%), the biggest Surfantasy player favourite for any event is Jemma Smith for the women’s ski with 73% selecting her in their team. The bad news for all of us is Jemma is NOT racing this weekend. This opens up the field enormously.
Jasmine Raywood, Piper Harrison or Claudia Kelly could all win this race. Claudia Kelly won at Coffs and is currently ranked second behind Jemma based on results of last 12 months.
Emily Doyle’s recent form deserves favouritism. She won at Port, 2nd at Coffs and a top 10 at Aussies. Watch also for improvement from young gun Olivia Clues after a winter on Kayaks.
Winner – Emily Doyle
Dangerous – Claudia Kelly, Jasmine Raywood, Piper Harrison, Olivia Clues
Mens
The Olympians Riley Fitzsimmons and Jackson Collins are Surfantasy favourites for the men’s ski. Jacko won Aussies over Riley but the results were reversed at Port with Riley winning. These boys are just starting back on their Olympic program so they will only get fitter and stronger. Let’s hope we get to see all the Olympians (including Noah, Jean, Tom) race this season.
Jamo Porter will also have plenty of home town support and we want to see South Australian Maguire Reid go round as he is apparently filthy he isn’t ranked in top 20 and can’t be selected in Surfantasy.
Winner – Jackson Collins
Dangerous – Riley Fitz, Maguire Reid, Jamo Porter, Jake Morris
*average position is the sum of the athlete’s overall race position divided by the number of races. Surfantasy only includes premier races including Aussies, 10,000 and 7,000 point Shaw and Partners World Ocean Series races
Check out the Surfantasy website ahead of the Shaw and Partners World Ocean Series Hayden Kenny Classic.